Bitcoin charts, market cycle history hint at 15% short-term push to $138K

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin closed its highest weekly candle at $119,310, then rallied on to $123,100.

• Short-term holder NAV premium at 16% signals moderate interest, well below FOMO levels.

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs have entered a strong buy regime following last week’s second-largest single-day inflow of $1.18 billion.

Bitcoin (BTC) price posted its most significant weekly gain of 8.74% since early May, closing its highest ever seven-day candle at $119,310. In the early hours on Monday, BTC reached an all-time high of $123,100 on Binance. With current prices around the $120,000 level, onchain data and market flows indicate the current rally could continue, especially with signs that retail FOMO is still largely absent. 

A key metric highlighting market sentiment among short-term holders (STH) is the Net Asset Value (NAV) premium, which compares the market valuation of STH holdings to their average cost basis. Currently, the NAV premium sits at 16%, comfortably within the “moderate” interest zone marked by green on the chart.

This range (0–25%) reflects a cautious optimism among short-term investors but remains far below the historically overheated 30–35% range, where FOMO-driven purchases have typically marked local tops.

Adding to the bullish case, Glassnode underlined that Bitcoin spot volumes have jumped 50% over the past week, signaling growing participation in the rally. However, volumes still sit 23% below the year-to-date average, indicating that the broader market is not yet in full swing. Participation is rising but hasn’t hit a euphoric peak, reinforcing that this rally may still have fuel.

Spot BTC ETFs indicate a “strong inflows regime”

Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted its second-largest single-day inflows on record with $1.18 billion last Thursday. This surge in capital didn’t just propel BTC to its new all-time high; it also signaled a structural shift in market momentum. Historically, such shifts are not short-lived. Once strong inflows begin, they persist for multiple days or even an entire trading week, providing a firm foundation for sustained price action. 

Ecoinometrics noted that the current ETF flow regime behaves as a “strong buy” signal, diverging from the previously lukewarm “neutral” status and lending additional weight to the uptrend.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which reflects the difference in BTC’s price on Coinbase versus Binance, its 14-day simple moving average (SMA-14) is currently above zero for the longest stretch in the current bull cycle, indicating prolonged buying pressure from US institutions and retail investors.

This metric was last this strong in early 2023, and its persistence suggests that US demand continues to play a critical role in supporting price discovery, even at these elevated levels.

Related: Bitcoin 'shows no signs of fatigue' as it overtakes gold in gains for 2025

Weekly trend forecasts another 10% to 15% rise

Bitcoin has broken out cleanly above its previous all-time high of $111,800, mirroring past cycle behaviors. Since 2017, a parabolic rally has commenced each time BTC has cleared above its previous highest weekly candle.

Bitcoin surged 167% in late 2020 after breaking above its 2017 high at $20,000, eventually peaking near $69,000 in early 2021. In the next cycle, it gained 49% after clearing that $69,000 high in late 2024.

Each breakout has shown a clear trend of diminishing returns, to 49% from 167%, and is now likely to be 10–15% before any short-term correction. Given this pattern, a reasonable short-term target lies between $132,0000 and $138,000 before momentum slows.

This aligns with the logic of weakening upside as BTC enters uncharted territory and undergoes price discovery. The price target could be tagged in one to two weeks, in line with the historical pace of post-breakout acceleration.

Related: 'Don't get trapped!' Bitcoin price analysis sees dip with $118.8K in focus

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.