Bitcoin may tap $116K in July amid ‘perfect storm’ of macro catalysts

Bitcoin may climb to $116,000 by the end of this month as three macroeconomic factors turn favorable for the asset, according to a crypto analyst.

“I think $116,000 is possible,” 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph after highlighting the three factors that could help bolster Bitcoin’s (BTC) price this month in a Thursday report.

Bitcoin is testing the top of the range, and more upside is possible

“Bitcoin is testing the top of its consolidation range, just as a perfect storm of macro catalysts begins to build,” he said, pointing to the strong uptick in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, US Federal Reserve uncertainty and the rapid decline of Bitcoin supply on crypto exchanges.

A move for Bitcoin to $116,000 would represent a 6.45% jump from its current price of $108,990 and a 3.60% jump from its current all-time high of $111,970, according to CoinMarketCap data.

He pointed to strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which experienced their first net outflow day on Wednesday after 15 consecutive days of inflows, as a bullish indicator for Bitcoin.

“These flows are increasingly outpacing price action, signaling institutional demand driven more by macro concerns than short-term momentum.”

Thielen said that the political pressure on the US Federal Reserve from US President Donald Trump may have been the reason for the surge in inflows. In April, Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying his termination “can’t come fast enough.” 

“This rhetoric may have been a catalyst for the third wave of Bitcoin ETF accumulation,” Thielen said.

Since May 1, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $9.91 billion in inflows, about 20% of their total inflows since launching in January 2024, according to Farside data.

A new Fed chair may be “more inclined toward rate cuts”

Thielen speculated that Trump might push for a new Fed chair who could advocate for a looser monetary policy, potentially benefiting Bitcoin.

“It may only be a matter of time before Trump nominates a new Fed chair more inclined toward rate cuts, evoking comparisons to Arthur Burns, whose capitulation to political pressure helped fuel the inflation of the 1970s.”

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Thielen also pointed out that Bitcoin balances on crypto exchanges “are shrinking.”

“Exchange balances have now declined for 98 consecutive days, marking the longest drawdown since 2020, which preceded the last major bull market breakout,” Thielen said.

“Historically, such sustained outflows signal rising scarcity and mounting upside pressure. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin could be setting the stage for another breakout,” he added.

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