In Texas Flooding, the Most Urgent Alerts Came in the Middle of the Night

Early Thursday afternoon, the National Weather Service issued a broad flood watch for parts of south-central Texas, including Kerr County, warning that a slow-moving storm system was expected to bring anything from scattered showers to intense storms through Friday morning.

Such warnings are common when conditions are favorable for a weather event, and are often followed by a warning when a dangerous event is occurring or about to occur.

And that’s what happened very early on Friday morning, when the Weather Service issued a series of upgraded warnings in quick succession. Rivers across the region were beginning to rise as storms dropped more and more rain — first, the San Saba River at 1 a.m. local time, and again at 5 a.m., followed by the Concho River and then the Colorado River. All three are expected to keep rising slowly through the weekend.

The Weather Service also issued warnings for flash floods as the storm’s impacts were becoming more clear. Unlike a slowly rising river, flash floods are sudden deluges that can occur after heavy rainfall with very little notice.

A little after 4 a.m., the Weather Service sent one of its most urgent alerts, a “particularly dangerous situation” warning, reserved for the most urgent and potentially deadly scenarios. It is meant to grab attention, and is most often used when violent tornadoes are nearby, but also for floods and wildfires. The warnings are often shared on the Weather Service’s social media accounts and broadcast by local news organizations.

At 5:34 a.m. local time, a “particularly dangerous situation” warning came for Kerr County: “Automated rain gauges indicate a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River,” forecasters wrote. “Flash flooding is already occurring.”

It identified Hunt, Kerrville and Center Point, all communities along the Guadalupe River, as places of concern: “Residents and campers should SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding along the river is expected.”

Other nearby areas, including Tom Green County, were also under these warnings starting a little after 6 a.m., one of which noted that “law enforcement reported major flooding and very dangerous conditions across San Angelo,” the county seat. Another warning for the eastern portion of Kerr County as well as part of Kendall County came at 7:24 a.m.

By then, reports were starting to emerge from the banks of the Guadalupe.

The flooding hazards continued through Friday, though the storms were expected to be less intense as the day went on. Weather Service forecasters in San Angelo noted that because of the rain that had already fallen, even small amounts of additional precipitation could exacerbate the flooding hazards.

A flash flood watch was in effect through parts of west-central Texas until 7 p.m. local time on Friday, and forecasters said isolated showers and thunderstorms were likely through the weekend.

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