Bitcoin should hold $100K as Q3 seasonality predicts sideways trading

Key takeaways:

• Analysts say Bitcoin is trading more like a risk asset than a safe haven like gold, undermining its “digital gold” narrative.

• A potential Fed rate cut in July may boost Bitcoin, but historical data shows Q3 tends to be flat, with only a 1% median return from June to September.

Bitcoin (BTC) is having a lackluster week, but this could change if the crypto asset follows the trajectory of the global money supply. Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer, said that gold prices could catch a bid after the global money supply hit an 8.5% year-on-year increase, driven by geopolitical tensions. However, Bitcoin’s volatile nature might exhibit a contrasting outlook. 

Timmer revealed that gold and Bitcoin exhibit rising Sharpe ratios, signaling improved risk-adjusted returns. The metric’s reliability underlines the possibility of a price recovery, but Bitcoin’s dual role—oscillating between a store of value and a “Nasdaq proxy” undermines its stability. 

Markets analyst Tony Sycamore conveyed a similar outlook for Bitcoin, stating that BTC trades more as a risk asset like US equities rather than a safe-haven asset like gold in 2025.

Likewise, LVRG research director Nick Ruck told Cointelegraph that BTC’s “digital gold” narrative is losing steam, with most traders focusing on short-term volatility rather than opting for BTC as a risk-adjusted asset. 

Related: Korean biotech firm bought by Parataxis for Bitcoin treasury use

Bitcoin seasonality highlights a flat Q3

With the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% (unchanged since December 2024), Bitcoin price has struggled this week, reflecting its sensitivity to unclear monetary policy and global conflict. However, during a CNBC interview on Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a rate cut could occur as early as July. 

Waller dismissed concerns that tariffs would significantly boost inflation, suggesting interest rates could be lowered as early as next month.

A rate cut could significantly boost Bitcoin's prospects for a Q3 rally. However, historical seasonality suggests a rally might not occur until Q4. Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson noted that over the past decade, Bitcoin’s median return from June 1 to Sept. 30 has been only 1% for the entire four-month period, not per month.

Such a trend would inherently keep BTC above $100,000 for a better part of the period, leading to stronger rallies in Q4.

On Friday, Bitcoin experienced a significant retracement following a liquidity grab near the $106,000 level during the London trading session. Technical analysis reveals persistent bearish momentum across higher and lower time frames, suggesting a high probability of another liquidity sweep targeting the $102,614 level in the coming days.

If selling pressure intensifies, the price could decline toward the $100,000 threshold, aligning with the previous range lows and a key daily fair value gap. 

Related: Bitcoin price slips under $104K into 'triple witching' options expiry

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.