Can Iran, Israel and the U.S. Now All Claim to Have Won?

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Even before it fired missiles at an American base and President Trump attempted to broker a cease-fire with Israel, Iran was looking for a way out.

On Monday morning, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss striking back against the United States. The Americans had bombed three of Iran’s main nuclear facilities over the weekend, yet another serious blow after a week of attacks by Israel that had inflicted severe damage to Iran’s military leadership and infrastructure.

Iran needed to save face. From inside a bunker, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sent an order to strike back, according to four Iranian officials familiar with the war planning.

But the ayatollah also sent instructions that the strikes be contained — to avoid an all-out war with the United States, according to the officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly about the country’s war plans.

Iran wanted to hit an American target in the region, they said, but it was also keen to prevent more attacks from the United States.

So, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps chose the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar for two reasons, according to two members of the Guards: Since it is the largest American military base in the region, they believed that the base had been involved in coordinating the American B-2 strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend.

But because it is in Qatar, a close ally of Iran, Iranian officials also believed that the damage could be kept fairly minimal.

Several hours before striking, Iran started sending advance notice that a strike was imminent, passing the message through intermediaries. Qatar closed its airspace, and the Americans were warned.

To the public, Iran trumpeted its strike on the Americans as the cost of attacking Iran. In a televised speech, a spokesman for Iran’s Armed Forces said the attacks on the American base in Qatar had been carried out by the Revolutionary Guards Corps.

“We warn our enemies that the era of hit and run is over,” said the spokesman.

Iranian state television played patriotic songs against the footage of ballistic missiles lighting up Qatar’s skies. The anchors theatrically spoke of Iran’s glory and victory in a war with imperial powers.

But behind the scenes, the four Iranian officials said, Iran’s leaders were hoping their limited attack and advance warning would convince President Trump to stand down, allowing Iran to do the same.

They also hoped Washington would pressure Israel to end its withering airstrikes on Iran, which began well before the American attack on Iran’s nuclear sites and were continuing as of Monday night, according to residents of Tehran, the Iranian capital.

Before firing on American forces in Qatar, one of the Iranian officials said that the plan was for no Americans to be killed, given that any deaths might spur the United States to retaliate, potentially leading to a cycle of attacks.

The plan seemed to work. Afterward, Mr. Trump said that 13 of the 14 Iranian missiles fired at Al Udeid had been downed, that no Americans there had been killed or wounded, and that the damage had been minimal.

In a remarkable statement, Mr. Trump even thanked Iran “for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.”

“They’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE,” he said.

Soon after, Mr. Trump announced that a cease-fire was imminent between Iran and Israel, though that was thrown into uncertainty on Tuesday morning. Mr. Trump lashed out at Israel and Iran over concerns about compliance with the truce.

Earlier, Ali Vaez, Iran director for the International Crisis Group, said that every side now had a narrative for victory, while avoiding the risk of stumbling into a larger conflict with severe consequences for the region and beyond.

“The United States can say it has set back Iran’s nuclear program,” he said. “Israel can say it has weakened Iran, a regional adversary, and Iran can say it has survived and pushed back against much stronger military powers.”

In a little more than a week, the war blew through many previous red lines in dizzying speed. But Iran’s appetite for a protracted war was waning.

Most Iranians had rallied behind the flag and denounced the war as an attack on their country, even as tens of thousands of people were displaced from their homes in Tehran and other cities. Shops, businesses and government offices were shuttered or operating with minimal hours. The economic impact was starting to show, with taxi drivers, laborers, service workers and others saying they could not survive much longer.

“Our country doesn’t have the capacity to continue this war,” said Sadegh Norouzi, head of the National Development Party in Tehran, in a virtual town hall. “We have problems with the economy, we have problems sustaining public support and we don’t have the same military and technology capacity of Israel and America.”

Some of the calls for an end to the war were even coming from affiliates of the Guards. Karim Jaffari, a political analyst affiliated with it, wrote on his social media page that Iran should focus on its war with Israel and not enter into one with the United States. “The only thing Iran does not want right now is a wider multi-front war without taking into consideration its consequences,” he wrote.

What Iran does next is still an open question. Though its limited attack on American forces in the region appeared calculated to avoid a deeper conflict, it does not necessarily mean hostilities are over.

Western officials concede that, despite the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, they are not certain what has happened to Iran’s stockpile of uranium. Does Iran have the capacity to enrich uranium further? Will it try more covert forms of aggression? Or will it now try to negotiate a lifting of the tough sanctions against it?

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has been on a diplomatic blitz, traveling to Turkey, Russia and Turkmenistan. After Iran’s strikes on American forces in Qatar, Mr. Araghchi said in an interview with Iranian state television reporters that the war against his country had failed to achieve its goals.

“I’m not saying they haven’t inflicted harm, yes, there was harm,” Mr. Araghchi said on Monday. “But they did not achieve their main goal to strip us completely of all our capabilities or any other goals they may have had.”