Bitcoin’s next stop could be $120K: BTC analysts explain why

Key takeaways: 

• Bitcoin inflows on Binance have dropped to 5,147 BTC, less than half of previous bear market levels, despite BTC trading above $105,000, signaling a possible decline in short-term selling pressure.

• Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-day EMA, historically a signal for breakout rallies. Technical indicators, including rising spot CVD, point to strong spot demand and potential upside toward $120,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) inflows and outflows on Binance can reveal insights into market sentiment. Data from CryptoQuant pointed out that BTC’s 30-day moving average (DMA) inflows on Binance dropped to 5,147 BTC on June 24, despite prices trading comfortably above $100,000. In fact, the 30-DMA inflows in December 2024 were around three times higher, with 13,200 BTC on Dec. 5, when Bitcoin was valued at under $100,000. 

While outflows draw market attention, inflows can directly reflect investor behavior, especially during derisking and profit-taking periods. Historically, spikes in BTC inflows to exchanges have corresponded with local market tops, preceding short to mid-term corrections. This behavior was evident during the FTX collapse in late 2022, when monthly BTC inflows surged to roughly 24,000 BTC, reflecting panic selling.

In contrast, the latest data paints a different picture. Despite Bitcoin trading above the $105,000 mark, monthly inflows to Binance have plunged below bear market benchmarks. This figure is less than half the panic levels seen during the FTX and significantly lower than the average monthly inflow of 12,000 BTC recorded since 2020.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. added more context to the current inflows and outflows in BTC, saying,

“The inflow/outflow ratio (Inflow/Outflow 30-day SMA) remains at a high level, comparable to the end of 2023 -beginning of the bull market, which indicates still strong demand for BTC.”

This pronounced drop in inflows strongly suggests a shift in investor strategy. Rather than rushing to sell into strength, market participants appear to be holding onto their coins, signaling a reduction in selling pressure.

Still, the broader environment remains complex. The market’s reaction to geopolitical events and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty means any bullish momentum must be cautiously approached. While the data hints at a more confident, long-term investor base, price action could still be vulnerable to external shocks.

Related: Bitcoin price analysis now sees up to $111K liquidity grab next

Bitcoin reclaiming the 50-day EMA could trigger rally to $120,000

Crypto trader Ibrahim Cosar said Bitcoin’s recent move back above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) may set the stage for a rally toward $120,000.

According to Cosar, the 50-day EMA remains a key technical level that has historically acted as strong support during corrective phases within uptrends. He noted a recurring pattern where brief dips below this level, followed by quick recoveries, exhibit bullish breakouts of 10% to 20%. The analyst added, 

“After the recent pullback, Bitcoin briefly closed below the 50-day EMA but has now posted three consecutive daily closes above it. This reclaim is typically a bullish signal, and we’re seeing a similar setup that has triggered major upward moves in the past.”

Additionally, crypto commentator IT Tech pointed out that BTC bulls are in control, driven by a rising cumulative volume delta (CVD) spot indicator. The CVD indicator measures the net difference between buying and selling pressure over time by aggregating volume data to reveal the balance of market participant behavior. As observed, rising CVD signals strong spot demand for BTC, with prices around the $108,000 level. 

Related: Bitcoin ETFs log biggest June inflows at $588M, extend 11-day streak

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.